In his climate change speech today President Obama angrily blasted global warming skeptics saying he lacked “patience for anyone who denies that this problem is real.”
Tell that to a famed German climate scientist, Hans von Storch. In an interview with Spiegel Online, Storch said that despite predictions of a warming planet the temperature data for the past 15 years shows an increase “very close to zero.”
Storch admits, “In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) – a value very close to zero.”
Spiegel asked Storch, a professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, why the Earth’s temperature has not risen significantly in the past 15 years despite an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) being emitted into the atmosphere from human activities. Storch says climate change proponents are puzzled.
“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break,” stated Storch. “We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared…As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years,” he added.
However that hasn’t happened because the climate models are obviously as reliable as your TV weatherman’s 6-day forecast. In fact the models used by your TV guy are built on the same platform as the global warming predictions.
Storch said the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would have to address these facts in its next climate assessment report due out late next year. That means the honchos at the UN will have plenty of time to spin the data to keep global warming an issue.
The Spiegle interview includes this exchange about what this 15-year data showing virtually no rise in the Earth’s temperature means going forward.
SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we’re observing right now?
Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2 emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase.
SPIEGEL: How long will it still be possible to reconcile such a pause in global warming with established climate forecasts?
Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.
SPEIGLE: “Would you say that people no longer reflexively attribute every severe weather event to global warming as much as they once did?”
Storch: “Yes, my impression is that there is less hysteria over the climate…if global warming continues to stagnate, doubts will obviously grow stronger.”
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